COVID crisis continues to grow as protests break out at Insein Prison; frustration is mounting amid increased calls for humanitarian intervention; calls for accountability in EAO massacre in Kayin; ASEAN may name envoy after AFMM in early August; China pushes ahead with BRI, Russia with sale of military jets; Bangladesh and Myanmar trade jabs on social media
- COVID catastrophe: Another 1,300 bodies were cremated in Yangon alone on Thursday as more than 6,700 COVID cases were reported and, at 37%, Myanmar has one of the highest positivity rates in the world. In a bid to control the outbreak, the military extended a nationwide public holiday through the end of the month. Also on Thursday, the junta received 750,000 COVID vaccines from China and, with Chinese support, ethnic armed group Shan State Progressive Party launched a vaccination drive at its headquarters which it hopes will cover 500,000 people.
- Prison protests over COVID spread: Prisons around Myanmar erupted in protest, with prisoners at Yangon's Insein Prison chanting in protest over growing COVID cases and poor medical care; there were reports that soldiers rushed towards the prison, prompting a joint statement from embassies in Yangon urging authorities to resolve the situation peacefully as well as statements from the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners and other civil society groups. The public joined in support, banging pots and pans during the day and into the night for the first time in weeks. At least 375 prisoners are infected with COVID and there have been at least six COVID deaths among prisoners; the military released some 1,000 prisoners from Insein Prison on Thursday, but political prisoners were not included among them and it is unclear if any testing was done on those released, meaning their release could serve to further spread COVID.
- Ethnic groups and NUG cooperate on COVID response: The NUG and ethnic health organizations launched a COVID task force chaired by the respected humanitarian Dr. Cynthia Maung with the NUG's health minister as her deputy. The task force will issue directives to prevent and mitigate the spread of COVID and will also engage with external stakeholders, including in order to procure vaccines.
- Frustration and calls for intervention:As the COVID crisis worsens, frustration is again mounting with the lack of an international response, as highlighted by several piercing Twitter threads from Myanmar activists, some of which are directed at delays in the introduction of US legislation. Thant Myint-U called for "the most skillful diplomacy possible" to save lives, prevent the emergence of new variants, and rescue Myanmar from collapse. The Special Advisory Council for Myanmar (SAC-M) called for the UN Security Council to "urgently mandate an international humanitarian intervention," possibly in collaboration with ASEAN, to combat CVOID, arguing the junta has neither the capacity nor the will to do so; after previously calling for cross-border support, SAC-M said a humanitarian intervention should come under the umbrella of the UN and with international aid workers on the ground. The South China Morning Post has a good recap of the press conference at which Yanghee Lee of SAC-M made her remarks.
- Foreign embassies suspend visa services: Amid the ongoing outbreak of COVID, the US and Thai embassies are among a growing number of diplomatic missions that are suspending visa services in Myanmar, closing off a potential means of departure from Myanmar for some.
- The other health impacts of the coup: While much of the focus on recent weeks has been on COVID, the coup has had a devastating impact on the entire health system: maternal mortality is likely increasing, children are going unvaccinated, other communicable and noncommunicable diseases are going untreated, and a mental health crisis is growing.
- NUG recognition: The Economist is pessimistic on the NUG's prospects for remaining relevant, let alone receiving recognition.
- Calls for accountability in Karen killings: The Karen National Defense Organization (KNDO), an armed wing of the Karen National Union (KNU), killed 25 alleged Tatmadaw spies in June, prompting the suspension of the KNDO's leader while the KNU investigates and deepening rifts within the Karen community. Both the Karen Human Rights Group and Legal Aid Network have now come out with statements calling for the perpetrators of the killings to be held accountable, with the Legal Aid Network noting that they may have violated international law.
- KNLA claims 180 Tatmadaw killed since June: The Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) claims to have killed 180 Tatmadaw troops since the beginning of June, including 26 in the past week.
- Targeted killings continue: In the latest in a wave of targeted killings and attacks, a ward administrator was killed in Monywa (Sagaing) on Tuesday, one of at least 64 local military-appointed officials assassinated since February 1.
- International response
- ASEAN envoy named after FM meeting? With ASEAN Foreign Ministers set to meet in Brunei from August 1-7, the appointment of an ASEAN envoy may (finally) be announced. The leading candidates seem to be Virasakdi Futrakul (a former Thai deputy foreign minister), Hassan Wirajuda (a former Indonesian foreign minister), and Razali Ismail (a Malaysian who was a U.N. special envoy for Myanmar in the 2000s). Expectations, however, should remain low as the Tatmadaw has made a mockery of the five-point consensus
- Russia moves forward with fighter jet sale: As expected, Russia is moving forward with a deal to supply the Tatmadaw with fighter jets as well as training aircraft.
- China presses ahead with Belt-and-Road projects in Myanmar: The Irrawaddy has a good overview of China's efforts to press ahead with Belt-and-Road projects since the coup.
- Bangladesh and Myanmar trade barbs on social media: Military-linked defense groups in Bangladesh and Myanmar traded barbs on social media over defense capabilities, perhaps portending a broader deterioration in relations as Bangladeshi frustration grows with the lack of progress on Rohingya repatriation.
- UK appoints new Myanmar ambassador: The UK appointed Pete Vowles as ambassador to Myanmar, replacing Dan Chugg, who has been in the role since 2018. Pete Vowles most recently served as Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office Director for Asia, Caribbean and Overseas Territories; though he has also worked in Bangladesh, he has not previously served as an ambassador.
- Bangladesh returns to lockdown: After a short break for Eid al Adha, Bangladesh returned to a strict lockdown on Friday.
Steve Ross
Senior Advisor and Program Director
Richardson Center for Global Engagement
